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Pittsburgh, PA – October 6, 2025 — TrendForce’s latest market note indicates that expectations for flat pricing in 4Q25 have flipped: contract prices across NAND categories are now projected to increase 5–10% on average. The firm ties the swing to HDD shortages and extended lead times that pushed cloud service providers to accelerate QLC SSD purchases, amplifying volatility on the flash side. 

StorageNewsletter amplified the research, summarizing TrendForce’s call for a Q4 uptick and framing it as “driven by spillover demand for QLC products.” 

Key data points

• Price outlook: Contract prices expected to rise 5–10% in 4Q25 across most NAND categories.
  
  
• Trigger events: SanDisk announced a 10% increase; Micron temporarily paused quotations—moves that shifted supplier sentiment from cautious to aggressive.
  
  
• Demand mix change: HDD constraints and longer lead times redirected CSP orders toward QLC enterprise SSDs, tightening flash availability.
  
  
• Supply-side setup: H1 production cuts and inventory drawdowns restored balance, while most suppliers prioritize CapEx for process migrations and higher-margin products.
  
  
• AI tailwinds: Anticipated NVIDIA Blackwell system ramps and persistent AI data growth are boosting enterprise SSD demand into late 2025.
  
  
• Segment notes: eMMC/UFS face softer demand and stiffer China competition (YMTC, local module makers), potentially capping increases versus SSDs.
  
  
• Wafer pricing: Process transitions and line adjustments reduce bit output, constraining wafer supply to module houses and pressuring wafer prices upward in 4Q25.
  
  

NAND Flash contract prices across all categories are expected to generally rise, with an average increase of 5–10% in 4Q25‍

said TrendForce in its September 25, 2025 release. 

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